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Unhappy Predictions

The flu and some random colds are sweeping through the office. It's like the plague hit. It's so bad that on Friday, even I felt like I was getting the sniffles. Fortunately nothing came of it. I think this is how my ancestors managed to survive into the modern era. We weren't even close to being the biggest or toughest or meanest SOBs around, but we did have a kick-ass immune system. Also we could sprint surprisingly fast when hard-pressed.

Of course, it goes without saying that whenever I start bragging about not getting sick, I get sick. As long as I keep my mouth shut, I can be fine for years. But this blog post has pretty much guaranteed that in short order, I'll be deathly ill for at least a week.

For another dose of pre-Holiday cheer, I'm going to come right out and predict that the Republicans are going to maintain control of both the Senate and the House. I also predict much jawing by the pundits Wednesday about "the incredible last-minute Republican surge!" Somehow the polls were 3-4 sigma out again! Amazing!

Although the prospect of the Republicans winning again is awful enough, the thing that is orders of magnitude more horrifying is what that victory would prove, once and for all, about our electoral system. I really, really hope I'm wrong about this.

Update: Well, I must say, it has never felt so good to be so colossally wrong. I'm just glad I didn't have a few hundred extra bucks burning a hole in my pocket, or I would have lost it all betting at tradesports.com.

Posted by Evan Goer on Nov. 06, 2006 at 8:03 PM | Comments (7)

Comments

And what would a republican victory prove exactly about our electoral system? I'm worried too, but my cynicism is somewhat confused...

...what is it exactly that is wrong? There are so many small things, which issue lies at the core?

Posted by Eamon Nerbonne on Nov. 07, 2006 at 7:49 AM
There are two issues at the core. First, the willingness of the RNCC to engage in <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=2633458&page=1&CMP=OTC-RSSFeeds0312">massive</a>, <a href="http://obsidianwings.blogs.com/obsidianwings/2006/11/morefunfromt.html">coordinated</a> <a href="http://www.stopjunkcalls.com/64120.htm">fraud</a>. Second, the <a href="http://arstechnica.com/articles/culture/evoting.ars">well-documented vulnerability</a> of our electronic voting systems.

If you want to feel some <em>bipartisan</em> cynicism, neither party has spent any time listening to the numerous engineers and security specialists who have pointed out the massive, obvious flaws with the current generation of e-voting machines. In fact, many Democratic-leaning groups (senior citizen groups, accessibility groups) have been strongly pro e-voting. It really beggars belief.

Posted by Evan on Nov. 07, 2006 at 8:21 AM
For a more specific prediction: the Democrats are going to pick up 11, 12, maybe 13 House seats at best. A gain in the low single digits also seems plausible, but I'm not willing to go that far.

Posted by Evan on Nov. 07, 2006 at 8:34 AM
I think <a href="http://acephalous.typepad.com/acephalous/2006/11/breakingnewsg.html">this</a> sums things up nicely.

Posted by Jacques Distler on Nov. 07, 2006 at 9:37 PM
Heh!

I guess after three of these in a row, I was conditioned to prepare for the worst.

Posted by Evan on Nov. 07, 2006 at 10:01 PM
In CA, at least, machine fraud is a lot tougher since this spring, when Debra Bowen's paper-record law went into effect (over the protest of MacPherson and many of the lazy registrars). It's entirely possible that that law secured her victory in the SoS race.

<a href="http://www.gregpalast.com/how-they-stole-the-mid-term-election">Greg Palast</a> pretty much summed it up. The Republicans stole the election by cheating -- and we stole it back by turning out a margin they couldn't deal with.

Next time you (or any of your friends) are feeling cynical about the system, come join me in fixing it.

Posted by Auros on Nov. 08, 2006 at 9:32 PM
Yup. I voted for Debra -- I had heard about her efforts. She rocks.

The lesson I draw from this is that strong skepticism is one thing, but plunging into abject cynicism and despair is another. Eventually, you're just doing the work of the bad guys for them. I've read what Glenn Greenwald has to say on the matter:

http://www.crooksandliars.com/2006/11/08/american-democracy-still-works/

and I feel suitably chastened.

Posted by Evan on Nov. 09, 2006 at 9:55 PM

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This entry was posted on November 6, 2006 by Evan Goer.

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