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1. I got a royal flush once, playing seven card stud, with two of the relevant cards (the jack and queen) face-down so nobody thought it was even remotely possible that I had it; I don't remember what the next highest hand in play was, but it wasn't anything near that exciting. That four-of-a-kind vs royal-flush scenario is straight out of the movies -- literally. That's how Mel Gibson's Maverick ends (though I forget what the four-of-a-kind that the bad guy stacked for himself was; I think some lowish number; they were playing five card draw, so no shared cards, and four-of-a-kind is already way more improbable than it is out of seven).

   Posted by Auros on Jan. 28, 2008 at 11:41 PM

2. OMG, your life is now a scene from Casino Royale. (I forget if it plays out exactly like this. However, it's something similarly improbable. The plot necessity that James Bond must eventually win the power tournament detracts from the shock though.)

   Posted by John Chu on Jan. 29, 2008 at 7:06 AM

3. That's exactly what I thought -- it was like a scene from a movie. In Movie Poker, the showdown always involves an impossibly good hand beating another impossibly good hand, provoking eye-rolling from anyone who's played even a little poker. (Presumably the audience wouldn't be impressed by, say, a straight beating a lower straight on the river.)

   Unfortunately in this case, the stakes of the game weren't One Hundred Meeellion dollars, or Reclaiming the Woman I Love, or Saving the World from International Terrorism. It was over a Ten Dollar Buy In Pot. In other words, I don't think Hollywood will be knocking down my door over this one.

   Posted by Evan on Jan. 29, 2008 at 7:20 AM

4. Wow, nice hand. I've played a lot of poker, and have never drawn either hand.

   Of course at 1 in 10,000 odds, you'd rather get the royal when a 'bond girl' is at the table.

   Posted by mmcclellan on Jan. 29, 2008 at 11:11 AM

5. Thanks, mmcclellan. I've been with my weekly poker group seven years, and playing Texas Hold'em exclusively for four. I think during the last four years we've seen one or two straight flushes, but my memory is fuzzy.

   It would have been nice if there was a Bond girl there. Though rest assured, when Phil and I turned over our cards, nobody in the room was exhibiting any cool, suave, Bond-girl-impressing behavior, least of all me. :)

   Posted by Evan on Jan. 29, 2008 at 12:35 PM

6. You said, "Booyah", didn'tcha?

   Followed by an arm pump and clearly enunciated "Oh yeah, read em and weep."

   Posted by Dru on Jan. 29, 2008 at 1:48 PM

7. I figured that's what Bond would have done, so...

   Posted by Evan on Jan. 29, 2008 at 10:07 PM

8. It's about time we got the picture and you blogged about this. If I have to suffer a loss when holding four aces, I want it documented, dammit!

   I hope to win my money back from you soon.

   BTW, I'm not sleepy, so: Given Evan's numbers above, and ignoring the community aspect of Hold'em, the probability of both is about 3.5 x 10 ^ -7. So literally less than 1 in a million. I have no idea how close this value is to the real likelyhood.

   Just to prove I've seen Maverick too many times, the low hand in the final hand was 4 eights, followed by a low straight flush, with Maverick holding a Royal flush in Spades. The odds of this occurring (disregarding a stacked deck) in 5-card draw are about the same as being struck by lightening and hit by a meteor while going over Niagara Falls in a barrel . . .

   . . . and living to tell about it.

   Posted by Phil on Jan. 30, 2008 at 7:33 AM

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